Mobile phones and other avionics could be used on planes without changes in operations by 2006

In a brand new report entitled In-Flight Mobile Calls: Enabling passenger mobility through maritime and airborne travel, visiongain analyst Jean Pierre Aubertin says, "I was surprised by the ease with which mobile communications could be deployed on aircraft and ships without affecting their operational requirements". The report examines the use of GSM phones on planes and ships, two forms of transport which are yet to see significant mobile phone traffic. Airlines are examining ways of allowing mobile phone use, but with long-haul carriers currently generating revenue from on-board phones, is there really a great incentive for them to see this through.

The report examines the avionics and maritime communications market and refers to the segment of the communications market that allows users to communicate using their personal devices onboard cruise ships, ferries, commercial airliners, and executive business jet aircraft. A number of companies have just recently started offering such services onboard cruise ships and ferries. Others are planning services for the aviation industry starting in 2006.

Because the market is just emerging, the potential for growth is significant. This is expected to be a huge market in aviation and a reasonable one in the maritime sector. Indeed, as the aviation market will not emerge until 2006, growth until 2010 will be explosive.

But for those of us who do not have executive business jet services and are more likely to travel on budget airways, will we see this service anytime soon? Mr Aubertin was sceptical, "We found that no-frills airlines did not quite appreciate the revenue potential of this technology - many failed to appreciate that several of their passengers are regular business travellers."

In 2005, the value of the avionics hardware market needed to deploy the above services is estimated at $81.6 million, whereas the maritime market was worth $2.8 million in 2004. Demand for this technology is expected to grow at a rapid pace, especially in the commercial aviation market, due to the potential large size of that market. In 2004, the estimated number of airliners totalled 12,114 while the number of executive business jets was in the region of 5,000. This compared favourably with the maritime market where the potential size of the cruise ship market amounted to some 150-200 vessels. The estimated number of ferries suited for that type of service stood at around 50-80 vessels. So are these companies willing to invest to make life that little bit easier for us? Yes, we travel more and particularly on short-haul trips, but are we their target market? Is it simply business users or are the airlines over-looking others?

"Grey powers should not be under-estimated as a source of revenue given that an increased number of retired people are choosing to travel during their retirement years either on cruise or long-haul destinations, and are often away from friends and relatives for long periods", says Mr Aubertin, who predicts $400-plus million revenues in 2006 once airborne traffic becomes available.

Passengers - whether travelling by planes or ships - value the ability to contact and also be contactable. This, coupled with increased business reliance on mobile communication services to conduct their activities, means that demand for voice and data calls using mobile phones and PDAs is poised to grow significantly over the course of the forecast period.

Companies are beginning to position themselves in the market and a number of service providers are currently busy negotiating roaming deals with major mobile network operators on a global scale.

But just because being able to use your mobile on a plane is technically feasible, that doesn't make it a good idea. Within the next 2 years you will be able to talk on your mobile while flying, but do you really want your fellow passengers doing the same. If mobile use becomes available on planes, then prepare for 'air-rage'. Visiongain have tackled this area within their report and have, in connection with psychologists, outlined what a problem this will be.

Though the technology remains likely, visiongain have successfully weighed up the commercial, strategic and regulatory issues against the social aspects. But what will the airlines do? Visiongain feel confident they know, and with their new report they are willing to tell you. For further details on this contact Senh Ip, Corporate Communications, visiongain: mailto:senhip@visiongain.com

For information on visiongain, please visit the website: www.visiongain.com

For additional information contact:

Senh Ip
visiongain
40 Tooting High St,
London SW17 ORG, UK
Tel: +44 (0) 20 8767 6711
Fax: +44 (0) 20 8767 5001
Email: Senh.ip@visiongain.com
http://www.visiongain.com