MI Poll: Granholm Leads DeVos 47% to 43%

Atlanta, GA/October 24, 2006 – Strategic Vision, LLC, an Atlanta-headquartered public relations and public affairs agency, announced the results of a three-day poll of 1200 likely Michigan voters. The poll has a margin of error of ±3 percentage points. In the poll, 46% (552 respondents) identified themselves as Democrats; 42% (504 respondents) identified themselves as Republicans; and 12% (144 respondents) identified themselves as Independent or other party affiliation.

When asked if they approved or disapproved of Governor Jennifer Granholm’s overall job performance, 46% of the respondents approved; 48% disapproved; and 6% were undecided. When asked if they approved or disapproved of Senator Debbie Stabenow’s job performance, 47% of the respondents approved; 39% disapproved; and 14% were undecided. When asked if they approved or disapproved of Senator Carl Levin’s job performance, 48% approved; 35% disapproved; and 17% were undecided.

“When an incumbent’s job approval is below 50% they must be considered vulnerable as they seek re-election,” said David E. Johnson, CEO and Co-Founder of Strategic Vision, LLC. “Both Senator Stabenow and Governor Granholm fall under this criteria and must be considered vulnerable in the final two weeks of this election year.”

When asked if they approved or disapproved of President Bush’s overall job performance, 32% of respondents approved; 63% disapproved; and 5% were undecided. When asked if they approved or disapproved of the President’s handling of the economy, 25% approved; 66% disapproved; and 9% were undecided. When asked if they approved or disapproved of the President’s handling of the war in Iraq, 35% approved; 59% disapproved; and 6% were undecided. When asked if they approved of his handling of the war against terrorism, 48% said yes; 39% said no; and 13% were undecided. When asked if they approved of the President’s handling of the immigration issue, 34% approved; 55% disapproved; and 11% were undecided.

“The problem for Republicans in Michigan continues to be the President anemic poll numbers among all voters – Republican, Independent, and Democratic,” said Johnson. “If it was not for this factor Republicans would be highly favored in the Senate and Governor races. However, as of now Democrats have been able to avoid blame for the condition of Michigan’s economy and place that blame on the President.”

When Republican voters were asked if they saw President Bush in the conservative mode of Ronald Reagan, 17% said yes; 64% said no; and 19% were undecided.

“The President’s larger problem is that he has lost the faith of conservative Republicans who do not feel the bond with him that they felt with Ronald Reagan,” said Johnson. “What is critical for Republicans if they are to win, is that despite this disillusionment with President Bush that they show up and vote viewing the Democratic alternative as too dangerous for the country.”

When asked if they thought Michigan was headed in the right direction or wrong direction, 23% said right direction; 65% said wrong direction; and 12% were undecided.

“Normally, an incumbent would be doomed with numbers such as these, yet so far Senator Stabenow and Governor Garnholm have been able to convince voters that the state’s problems are caused by the President and not as a result of their policies,” said Johnson.

When asked if they would like to see the Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade, 35% said yes; 53% said no; and 12% were undecided.

When asked if they expected another terrorist attack in the United States in the next six months, 76% said yes; 13% said no; and 11% were undecided.

When asked if they favored granting amnesty to all illegal immigrants currently in the United States, 11% said yes; 82% said no; and 7% were undecided.

When asked if they favored building a wall along the southern border in the United States to prevent illegal immigration, 82% said yes; 12% said no; 6% were undecided.

When asked if they favored an immediate withdrawal of all United States armed forces from Iraq within six months, 47% said yes; 45% said no; and 8% were undecided.
“Iraq is an albatross this election for Republicans, with more voters in Michigan now favoring a withdrawal from Iraq than at any time since we began polling,” said Johnson.

When asked if they would be more likely or less likely to vote for Republican congressional candidates because of the scandal with former Florida Congressman Mark Foley, 21% said more likely; 48% said less likely; and 31% said it would make no difference.

“The Foley scandal is hurting Republicans running for Congress and could cost them control of the House and affect other close races,” said Johnson.

When asked if they believed that Republican Congressional leaders handled the Foley scandal properly, 22% said that that the Republican Congressional leadership handled it properly; 62% said that the Republican Congressional leadership had not handled it properly; and 16% were undecided.

When asked if they thought House Speaker Dennis Hastert should step down as Speaker of the House Representatives because of the Foley scandal, 52% said he should step down; 39% said did not think he should step down; and 9% were undecided.

In a general election match-up for Governor, between Governor Jennifer Granholm and Republican Dick DeVos, Granholm led 47% to 43% with 10% undecided.

“This race remains volatile and will be influenced heavily by advertising and events,” said Johnson. “Still, Granholm remains highly vulnerable when one looks at her job approval number and in a normal election cycle would seem destined for defeat.”
In a match-up between Senator Stabenow and Republican Senate nominee Mike Bouchard, the results were Stabenow 48%; Bouchard 42%; and 10% undecided.

“This race could be a surprise as Bouchard is showing surprising strength and Stabenow is underperforming for an incumbent,” said Johnson. “If Republicans invest in Bouchard, they may pull off an upset that could help offset losses elsewhere in the Senate.”

When Republicans were polled on whom they would support in 2008 for the Republican Presidential nomination, Arizona Senator John McCain received 39%; former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani received 25%; Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney received 15%; Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich 6%; Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist received 2%; Virginia Senator George Allen received 1%; New York Governor George Pataki received 1%; Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum received 1%; Nebraska Senator Chuck Hagel received 1%; and 9% were undecided.

“Senator McCain at this point is the clear leader in Michigan and still has the residual strength from his 2000 primary victory in the state,” said Johnson. “The key question is who will emerge as McCain’s key rival in the state. At this point Romney appears to have the most growth potential and is attracting strong support among evangelical Christians.”

On the Democratic side, New York Senator Hillary Clinton led with 30%; former Vice President Al Gore received 22%; former North Carolina Senator John Edwards received 13%; Illinois Senator Barack Obama received 12%; Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold received 4%; Massachusetts Senator John Kerry received 3%; former General Wesley Clark received 2%; Delaware Senator Joseph Biden received 1%; Indiana Senator Evan Bayh received 1%; Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack received 1%; New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson received 1%; Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell received 1%; Connecticut Senator Christopher Dodd received 1%; and 8% were undecided.

“If Senator Obama joins the race, he starts as one of the leaders in the Democratic field,” said Johnson. “At this point, just his inclusion as a potential candidate seems to hurt all of the other candidates with the exception of Gore.”

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