PA Poll: Casey 49%; Santorum 42%

Atlanta, GA/October 26, 2006 – Strategic Vision, LLC, an Atlanta-headquartered public relations and public affairs agency, announced the results of a three-day poll of 1200 likely voters in Pennsylvania on various political issues. The poll has a margin of error of ±3 percentage points. For the poll, 576 (48%) identified themselves as Democrats; 504 (42%) identified themselves as Republicans; and 120 (10%) identified themselves as Independent or other party affiliation.

The results of the poll showed that 35% of those polled approved of President Bush’s overall job performance; with 60% disapproving; and 5% undecided. When asked if they approved of the President’s handling of the economy, 28% approved; 58% disapproved; and 14% were undecided. On the issue of Iraq, the poll found 33% approved of the President’s handling of the war; with 59% disapproving; and 8% undecided. When asked about the President’s handling of the war on terrorism, 49% approved; 42% disapproved; and 9% were undecided. When asked if they approved of the President’s handling of the immigration issue, 40% approved; 47% disapproved; and 13% were undecided.

“The President’s numbers continue to be far below what previous President’s have recorded during their second terms and this is a key obstacle for Republicans in Pennsylvania,” said David E. Johsnon, CEO and Co-Founder of Strategic Vision, LLC. “As he is below 40% in the polls, Republicans in Pennsylvania will be hurt. What is hurting the President is not the low numbers that he is recording among Democrats but rather his poor standing among Republicans.”

When Republican respondents were asked if they saw President Bush as a conservative in the mode of Ronald Reagan, 18% said yes; 60% said no; and 22% were undecided.

“After a slight revival in September, the President’s standing has again slipped among conservative Republicans as reflected in this question.” said Johnson.

When asked if they wanted to see the Supreme Court overturn Roe v. Wade, 33% said yes; 57% said no; and 10% were undecided.

When asked if they would support an immediate withdrawal of United States troops from Iraq within six months, 43% said yes; 42% said no; and 15% were undecided.

“This is the first time since we began polling on this question in Pennsylvania, that more people have favored a withdrawal from Iraq within six months and is a further reflection of the problems facing Republicans,” said Johnson.

When asked if they expect a terrorist attack within the United States in the near six months, 78% said yes; 8% said no; and 14% were undecided.

When asked if they favored amnesty for illegal immigrants currently residing in the United States, 12% said yes; 80% said no; and 8% were undecided.

When asked if they favored building a wall at the southern border of the United States, 86% said yes; 8% said no; and 6% were undecided.

When asked if they would be more likely or less likely to vote for Republican congressional candidates because of the scandal with former Florida Congressman Mark Foley, 18% said more likely; 52% said less likely; and 30% said it would make no difference.

“The Foley scandal is hurting Republicans running for Congress and could affect several of the races in Pennsylvania,” said Johnson.

When asked if they believed that Republican Congressional leaders handled the Foley scandal properly, 12% said that that the Republican Congressional leadership handled it properly; 69% said that the Republican Congressional leadership had not handled it properly; and 19% were undecided.

When asked if they thought House Speaker Dennis Hastert should step down as Speaker of the House Representatives because of the Foley scandal, 58% said he should step down; 30% said did not think he should step down; and 12% were undecided.

“Hastert seems to be hurt across Party lines,” said Johnson.

The poll showed that 50% of the respondents approved of Governor Ed Rendell’s job performance; with 36% disapproving; and 14% undecided.

“Rendell has better positioned himself as he enters into the final two weeks of the election,” said Johnson.

In a match-up between Governor Rendell, Republican Lynn Swann, and Independent Russ Diamond, the results were Rendell 57%; Swann 37%; and 6% undecided.

“Rendell is cruising towards re-election at this point and attracting a significant number of crossover Republicans,” said Johnson. “Rendell is being very successful in making the election a referendum on Swann.”

In the United States Senate race, the poll found that 47% approved of Senator Rick Santorum’s job performance; 44% disapproved; and 9% were undecided.

In a match-up against Democratic nominee Robert Casey, Jr., Casey led with 49% to 42%; and 9% undecided.

“Casey has lost some support but Santorum needs something dramatic to happen to close the gap and time is running out,” said Johnson. “Santorum is being hurt particularly among female voters and self-described moderate Republicans and Casey is drawing more male support than normal for a Democratic candidate.”

Pennsylvania’s senior Senator Arlen Specter received a 51% job approval; with 36% disapproving; and 13% undecided.

When Democrats were asked their choices for President in 2008, the results were New York Senator Hillary Clinton 28%; former Vice President Al Gore, 17%; Illinois Senator Barack Obama 15%; former North Carolina Senator John Edwards 10%; Massachusetts Senator John Kerry 6%; Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold 4%; former General Wesley Clark 2%; Delaware Senator Joseph Biden 1%; Connecticut Senator Christopher Dodd 1%; Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell 1%; Indiana Senator Evan Bayh 1%; New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson 1%; Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack 1%; and 12% undecided.

“Strategic Vision decided last week, with the increased speculation on a potential presidential run by Senator Obama, to include him among the Democratic candidates, and he automatically is a top contender polling better than such candidates as Edwards and Kerry,” said Johnson. “Significantly, he polls strongly among females voters. How much of this support is genuine and how much can be attributed to the publicity he has been generating and dissatisfaction with the current Democratic field is a question.”

On the Republican side, the choices for President in 2008 were former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani 47%; Arizona Senator John McCain 24%; former House Speaker Newt Gingrich 8%; Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney 6%; Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist 2%; Virginia Senator George Allen 1%; Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum 1%; New York Governor George Pataki 1%; Nebraska Senator Chuck Hagel 1%; and 9% undecided.

When asked if they thought Pennsylvania was going in the right direction, 29% said right; 59% said wrong; and 12% were undecided.

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