Peak oil writer calls for healthcare Hirsch report

An Australian medical professional turned peak oil writer called this week for a healthcare version of the well-known Hirsch report. “We need to look at mitigation options available to the healthcare sector as oil becomes scarcer over the coming few years,” he said.

Most peak oil research to date has focussed on trying to predict when peaking will occur. The Hirsch report (published in 2005) is a notable exception; it looked at how long it would take to reduce the impacts of peak oil using available technology without predicting a date.

“I contend that a study with a similar purpose would be a useful tool for the world's health care systems, as it would allow us to manage the significant expected impacts of oil scarcity and energy descent,” said Dr Paul Roth, a family doctor in Australia and founder of the Peak Oil Medicine website (www.peakoilmedicine.com).

The Hirsch report authors followed a step-by-step approach and found that it would take 20 years of massive and urgent action to significantly replace oil. Doctor Roth suggests that a similar process could be used to examine healthcare's current oil dependency and the options for reducing it.

“Using the hypothetical example of plastic syringes, I followed a “Hirsch-type” process to examine the broad issues of replacing them with glass ones. I was most interested in demonstrating that such a process (even conducted on a theoretical level) could provide useful insights into how difficult it might be to transition to a more sustainable system. What I found frightened me,” he said.

He chose disposable plastic syringes because the use of plastic in our society is so prevalent, and especially so in healthcare - “Plastic now performs a multitude of critical functions in our healthcare system. It has replaced glass, rubber and metal in so many areas that if it was suddenly unavailable or even scarcer and more expensive the system would fall apart,” he said.

A description of the step-by-step process that he followed is detailed on his website (www.peakoilmedicine.com). He lists five possible advantages of such a study. Perhaps the most important will be what he calls a “paradigm shift” to new and ecologically sustainable ways of delivering adequate and accessible health care for all.###