Leading Pumpkinomic indicators suggest gain in U.S. economy, Halloween expert says

Leading Pumpkinomic® indicators suggest gain
in U.S. economy, Halloween expert says

CHICAGO — Some economic forecasters measure the rise and fall of the economy with housing starts; others rely on pork-belly futures to predict Wall Street’s fortunes. The Rock & Roll Chef® conjures up predictions with an “orange crystal ball”: pumpkins.

Marty Larkin (aka The Rock & Roll Chef), who has been a professional pumpkin carver and Halloween expert for nearly a decade, says that orders for his RockNRollHalloween.com custom-crafted pumpkins are up somewhat over last season.

With tongue firmly in cheek, Larkin says, “What we call our Orange Index™ is about 4.7 percent ahead of 2004.”

In previous years, the Orange Index had hovered around 11 or 12 percent, but Larkin is reluctant to point fingers. “We do custom work for people of all political persuasions, so I’m not about to suggest that President Bush and Halliburton are carving up America like a fat pumpkin,” he declares.

RockNRollHalloween.com’s custom pumpkins are typically purchased by sales executives and corporations for use as reception-area decorations or as seasonal gifts. Larkin has carved for Playboy, Pixar, Kraft, KingWorld, Boeing and Harpo Productions (to name only a few), and ships his orange artwork all over the country.

He sees the increase in orders as a good economic indicator. He says his company begins receiving inquiries about pumpkins as soon as January, when he takes “early harvest” orders (before Oct. 14) at a 10 percent discount. Orders are continuing at a brisk pace, he reports.

“Normally, orders don’t really hit until the second or third week of October,” Larkin says. “This year’s Pumpkinomic indicator is a pleasant surprise. We’re hoping the trend continues.”

Larkin, a marketing entrepreneur who focuses year-round on the entertainment and food industries, believes the corporate world’s interest in Halloween gifts mirrors the holiday’s increasing popularity nationwide.

“Halloween is second only to Christmas in terms of consumer spending,” he says. “And, for my money, it’s a lot more fun.”

“Besides,” Larkin points out, “it seems like every business sends gifts and cards during the Christmas season, and so it’s very easy to get lost in the shuffle,” he says. “I mean, how many ‘Seasons Greetings’ cards and 10-pound tubs of stale caramel corn can one office handle?”

When a client receives a custom-carved pumpkin, usually accompanied by a goodie bag of Halloween toys and goodies, “you definitely stand out from the crowd,” he says.

Another reason for the increase in pumpkin-giving may be a new awareness of the Hispanic market, Larkin says. “I’d say the largest number of new clients have been those targeting individuals and business likely to appreciate Halloween’s similarities to Dia de los Muertos (Day of the Dead).”

Day of the Dead shares many of Halloween’s traditions and symbols, Larkin notes.

As for cost, Larkin says his medium-size carved pumpkins start at about $100. Each is hand-carved, and simply cannot be automated or mass-produced; the more intricate the images or logo and art preparation, the more the cost.

Because the pumpkin skin is scored, rather than cut entirely through, Larkin’s pumpkins stay fresh for up to three months. Clients may also hollow out the pumpkin themselves for a lighted jack o’lantern, which lasts three to five days.

Larkin, who also created “The Rock & Roll Chef’s Halloween Carving Kit” for X-Acto, says pumpkins take from 30 to 90 minutes to carve, depending upon the complexity of the image.

Asked whether his Orange Index can shed any light on the end-of-the-year holiday shopping season, Larkin shrugs his shoulders.

“Although I’d love to do them, there’s no demand for pumpkins at Christmas,” he says. ‘The 13 Days of Halloween’? Now that’s another story.”

For pumpkin-carving tips, free character templates and more, visit www.RockNRollHalloween.com.