Futurists Warn of Dry Century

Bethesda MD—Demand for water has tripled over the last half century and is set to increase further with population in the decades ahead. The millions of irrigation wells that have been already drilled across the globe are pushing water withdrawals beyond recharge rates, Lester R. Brown writes in the most recent issue of THE FUTURIST magazine. http://www.wfs.org/futurist.htm

“In other words,” says Brown, “we're now mining groundwater.”

In his article entitled “Draining Our Future: The Growing Shortage of Freshwater” Brown says that water tables are now falling in countries that contain more than half the world's people, including the big three grain producers—China, India, and the United States. Today’s water trends suggest that food will be more expensive in the future, that water required for farming will increasingly be diverted for use by growing cities, and that water shortages will result in increased political stress and turmoil.

“It is often said that future wars in the Middle East will more likely be fought over water than oil, but in reality the competition for water is taking place in world grain markets. The countries that are financially the strongest, not necessarily those that are militarily the strongest, will fare best in this competition,” says Brown and adds that more water-efficient irrigation, industrial water recycling, and urban water recycling, could all help ease water shortages in the coming years.

McKinley Conway, engineer and founder of Conway Data, agrees that maxing out aquifers or pumping water from ever-distant streams is a short-sighted and inadequate solution to the growing water crisis. There is, he says, a better solution.

“Desalting systems have long proven effective in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, and Saudi Arabia. Where once there were bleak villages on barren deserts there are now bright modern cities with tree-lined streets. There are homes with lush gardens. In the countryside there are productive farms.”
Conway reports that there are some 7,000 desalination plants in operation worldwide.
Roughly 75% are located in the Middle East, with others scattered across islands in the Caribbean and elsewhere such as Aruba.

“Even Atlanta, 300 miles from the ocean, may someday have to turn to seawater. Since the 1950s, when no one foresaw the possibility of long-term water shortages for Atlanta, a population explosion accompanied by an extended drought of unprecedented severity has lowered water levels drastically in Lake Lanier and Lake Allatoona—two huge reservoirs serving the area,” he says.

Brown’s and Conway’s articles can be obtained from the World Future Society Web site, www.wfs.org. Individuals can also pick up the May-June 2008 issue of THE FUTURIST for $4.95 at bookstores and newsstands, or write the World Future Society, 7910 Woodmont Ave., Suite 450, Bethesda, MD 20814. Order online at www.wfs.org.

THE FUTURIST is a bimonthly magazine focused on innovation, creative thinking, and emerging social, economic, environmental, and technological trends.

Among the thinkers and experts who have contributed to THE FUTURIST are Gene Roddenberry, Al Gore, Newt Gingrich, Richard Lamm, Alvin and Heidi Toffler, Buckminster Fuller, Frederik Pohl, Isaac Asimov, Vaclav Havel, Hazel Henderson, Margaret Mead, Robert McNamara, Betty Friedan, Nicholas Negroponte, Helena Norberg-Hodge, Lester R. Brown, Arthur C. Clarke, Douglas Rushkoff, Joel Garreau, William J. Mitchell, and U.S. Comptroller David M. Walker.

Editors: To request a review copy of THE FUTURIST magazine, contact director of communications Patrick Tucker, 301-656-8274 (ext. 116), or ptucker@wfs.org. More information about the World Future Society may be obtained from the Society’s Web site, www.wfs.org.